Optimizing Engineering Designs Changing Criteria News & Views Feature Article

By Phillip Myers Phillip Myers is professor emeritus of engineering at the University of Wisconsin, past president of the Society of Automotive Engineers, and a member of the National Academy of Engineering. Originally published in News & Views January 1999 issue. Copyright 1999 STC-Philadelphia Metro Chapter. For permission to reprint this article, contact the Managing Editor.

As engineers, we usually make design decisions based on technical factors. However, factors outside of technology often play a significant role when we select optimum engineering designs. While my record in the stock market will not support prophecy as a vocation, I believe these four other-than-technical factors will influence engineering designs in the next thirty years: growth and changing trends in population globalization information explosion education Growth in population Population size affects demand for resources (food, clothing, housing, transportation, raw materials, energy, etc.) and the load on the environment. Successful solutions for supplying these needs will require innovative and affordable engineering designs of machines and systems. Figure 1. World Population Growth Figure 1 shows the growing significance of this problem-look at the increase in population since 1960. Another way of emphasizing the magnitude of the problem is the fact that 10% of the people who have ever lived on this planet are alive today. There is good news-the rate of increase in world population has been slowing and is predicted to continue slowing. However, the projected one-half-percent growth of the projected world population of ten billion in year 2050 is still a large number-fifty million people, or 12 to 15% of the current U.S. population. Figure 2. Fertility Rates We have been inclined to think that population pressure is a third world problem. However, consider these facts: Figure 2 shows the U.S. has one of the highest fertility rates of any industrialized country in the world. "Hotel" requirements-that is, the total resource needs to support a life style-are not the same for each person around the world. For example, in terms of energy consumption, a U.S. family with two children is equivalent to an East Indian family with sixty children or an Ethiopian family with one thousand children. This is a difference in "hotel" load factor of 500! Along our coasts, where nearly half of the population lives, the U.S. is among the more densely populated countries in the world. The northeast averages 767 people per square mile while Haiti, for comparison, has 580 people per square mile. Immigration has and continues to play a significant role in U.S. population growth, as shown in Figure 3. Figure 3. U.S.Immigration Aging However there are subtle implications in population figures that are of interest from the standpoint of optimizing engineering designs. For example, in the U.S. between 1960 and 1994 the total population grew by 45% but the number of those sixty-five years and older grew by 100%. Currently 14% of the U.S. population is sixty five or older; it is 15% in Japan. To further emphasize the implications of aging it estimated that by 2005 37% of U.S. workers will be more concerned with caring for a parent than a child-this is a major shift! The optimum transportation system, the optimum car and seat design [or computer display-Ed.] for an ancient person are different from those for an agile twenty-year old! However, a marketing study has shown that the older population is not aging gracefully-they have to be marketed to as if they were twenty years younger! Environmental effects In the past our globe has offered free waste disposal via land, sea, and air. Our current activities are already significantly affecting these free waste disposal facilities. The need for waste disposal capabilities will increase for two reasons. The first is population growth. The second is that a major fraction of the growing world population will want to increase their "hotel load." Global pollution In a 1969 paper I stated "The earth is basically a closed system with waste disposal facilities clearly limited. There is increasing evidence that the United States and other industrialized nations are already straining the limits of the 'free' waste disposal of the atmosphere." We are all familiar with the strain on the atmosphere, but the strain on our oceans is less well publicized. Two climate trends-global warming and the destruction of the ozone layer by refrigerants and other compounds-illustrate the complexities of determining the cause and magnitude of man's effect on his environment. There was scientific consensus on the cause of destruction of the ozone layer. Appropriate action was taken and the situation is improving. Figure 4. Solar Activity and Global Temperature There is not the same scientific consensus on the global warming problem, due to several factors. First, there is a potential for global warming due to our input of carbon dioxide (C02) and other gases into the atmosphere. Second, the atmospheric models used in predicting the effect of these gases on global warming are embryonic and unproven. Third, there are other factors beside C02 affecting global warming. For example, Figure 4 suggests that solar activity correlates with global temperature-the shorter the solar cycle, and hence more active the sun, the higher the temperature. Fourth, as shown in Figure 5, there have been major changes in global temperatures when the production of C02 by man was insignificant. Figure 5. Change in Global Temperature In my opinion there are major uncertainties regarding global warming. However, the global rate of C02 put into the atmosphere will surely increase rapidly as the rest of the world becomes industrialized. As previously mentioned, from an energy standpoint there is a difference of 500 in "hotel" load factor between a person in the U.S. and a person in Ethiopia. The ocean, like the atmosphere, used to seem infinite in its bounty. Now it is suffering from over-fishing and pollution. Two-thirds of the world's nearly six billion people live within fifty miles of the coast and much of their pollution runs to the sea. It is estimated that the city of New York deposits 500 tons per day of treated sewage into the ocean. James Baker, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), thinks coastal pollution is as serious a problem as climate change. [As an example, consider the problems with trash and pollution in the past years on the New Jersey shore.-Ed.] Local pollution Local air pollution occurs from both man-made and natural sources. We have made major progress in reducing per person contributions but problems still exist and much work remains. First, we engineers are going to have to do a better job of providing, in a convincing and understandable form, all the information needed to make required societal decisions. Calculations by the solar energy group at the University of Wisconsin show that the annual total carbon dioxide produced by residential hot water heaters is approximately equal to the carbon dioxide produced by all of the personal cars in the U.S. Why then, is there not an equivalent effort to reduce carbon dioxide production from hot water heaters as there is from cars? What would be the relative cost of using solar energy water heaters to reduce C02 emissions versus increasing automotive fuel economy? Another area of increased concern is particulates. The EPA has recently promulgated standards regulating emissions of particles of 2.5 micron diameter. However, again we must consider the total picture. Researchers talk about the "Pigpen Effect." Personal exposures to fine particles are high because people are exposed to and generate fine particles in many ways. For example, they talk with an active smoker, they stir up dust when they walk, they shed skin flakes, and they produce aerosols through many activities, such as cooking and vacuuming. Researchers have found that personal exposures may be significantly larger than and do not correlate well with outdoor particulate exposures. How do we as engineers explain to the politicians the complex problems and tradeoffs inherent in such data? Globalization In his June 8, 1998, newsletter to members of the National Academy of Engineering, President William Wulf stated "I am convinced that the globalization of industry is having a significant impact on the practice of engineering." Globalization of automotive companies and their suppliers is already well underway. For example, several months ago Business Week had an article about the auto parts business entitled "Get Big or Get Out." The article comments that auto parts companies not only make parts, "They design them, too, and integrate them into big complex assemblies. And they do it globally." The recent merger of Chrysler with Daimler-Benz is another compelling example. There are other implications to globalization, including the setting of standards. Raymond Kammer, director of the National Institute of Standards and Technology, has called for "an effective national standards strategy if we are to compete in the global market." He further states that "the globalization of trade has clearly changed the face of commerce" and that "standards that may serve as barriers to trade take on monumental importance." The solution, he noted, is to achieve worldwide recognition of the technology incorporated into U.S. standards and conformity-assessment procedures, and to harmonize them with procedures of major trading partners through increased U.S. participation in the development and use of international standards. One unanswered question-will global deals and standards inevitably lead to global regulation, both financial and technical? Regulators are constrained by national laws, and companies cannot now get one-stop regulatory clearance. Antitrust officials are equally frustrated. Last year's merger between Boeing and McDonnell Douglas easily cleared the antitrust hurdles in the U.S. but nearly ran afoul of the European Union's regulators. Other international issues include labor standards and the environment. Labor standards include not only pay for mature workers but also use of child labor. It is difficult to develop international standards that do not appear to restrict trade or to give rich countries an excuse to discriminate against poorer countries. Environment is the most difficult question. Different emission standards in different countries increase development costs of transportation vehicles. Moreover, varying conditions such as traffic, weather, maintenance capabilities, and fuel quality affect the optimum emission control system. There also are indications that education is becoming global. For example, Georgia Tech now has a branch in France. French and U.S. students are taught in the same class room by both French and U.S. professors using the English language. Both groups of students must spend instruction time at both locations. Information The information explosion is changing procedures for the design of the transportation vehicle, marketing of the vehicle, enjoyment and use of the vehicle, traffic control of the vehicle, and finally the disassembly of the vehicle. Boeing and some of the automotive companies recently highlighted in their advertisements the use of computers to design "paperless" vehicles. Not as well publicized is the use of computers to simulate the complex phenomena occurring in engines. Super-computers are now simulating with moderate success the complex processes of introducing and burning fuel in the engine. While not perfect, these simulations have changed and will continue to change the engine design process. The car of the future has been called "a mobile-media platform." It has been stated that the average automobile user spends about seven hours per week of largely unproductive time behind the wheel. The challenge is to design safe, affordable, and valuable information, communication, entertainment, and security features. At the Society of Automotive Engineers 1998 annual meeting, a unit was demonstrated that recognizes over 200 simple voice commands and comes with a basic point-to-point navigation system to provide accurate turn-by-turn directions. Even more versatile systems are close to introduction. Unanswered questions are what value the customer will place on such capabilities and whether or not the distraction of this information will interfere with driving responsibilities. The use of information technology to produce an automated highway was demonstrated last fall on a specially instrumented 7.6 mile section of Interstate 15. The specially augmented cars, running at 65 miles per hour, ran a total of about 8,000 miles, carried 4,000 passengers, and had no safety incidents. However, the instrumentation cost of $200,000 per vehicle demonstrates the challenge. Information capabilities are impacting more than the design and driving processes-they are impacting the marketing processes. The Internet, corporate networks, and wireless setups are linking people, machines and companies around the globe-and connecting sellers and buyers as never before. This is enabling buyers to quickly and easily compare products and prices, putting the customer in a better bargaining position. It has been commented that list pricing is no longer relevant! At the same time, technology allows sellers to collect detailed data about customers' buying habits, preferences, and even spending limits. Education Lester Thurow stated "Today, knowledge and skills now stand alone as the only source of comparative advantage." Capital has become a commodity. It is readily available and can be wired around the world at the speed of light. Knowledge and skills are obtained only by formal and informal education-hence my conclusion that education will play a major role in future engineering designs. George Rathman, former CEO of Amgen, was asked what he thought were the top challenges that U.S. businesses face in today's global market place. His reply: "To do leading edge work, you need leading edge talent. Much of that talent, of course, is engineering and science talent." Technical education of the general public and of the decision makers who hopefully execute the wishes of the public is perhaps more important than education of engineers. For the past ten years, annual surveys by the National Science Foundation have shown that fewer than half of all Americans know that electrons are smaller than atoms or that the earth goes around the sun once a year. This seems incredible to us engineers. In view of the growing population pressures I think the earth must be considered as an integrated problem- you have to combine the physical, natural, and social sciences together to better manage the earth and its problems. Our leaders truly need to be Renaissance persons. However, Herbert Hoover and Jimmy Carter, the two engineering-trained U.S. Presidents, did not receive high marks for their contributions to solving societal problems. President Jefferson, who is remembered as a scientific leader for his time, remarked "I would sooner believe that two Professors lied, than that stones fall from the sky." Apparently professors had no more credibility in Jefferson's time than today! We all need education. The practice of engineering is changing. Job change is more frequent; engineers work more in teams; industry conducts less long-term, fundamental research; the technological fields needing engineers are increasing; and engineering is increasingly attracting a diverse population. I am not certain that engineering education has kept up with this changing environment. What is engineering education? William Wulf, President of NAE, defines engineering as "design under constraint." Engineering education should produce practitioners capable of meeting this definition. We-industry and academia-need to reopen the question of whether the B.S. degree should be the first professional degree for engineers. This is not a new question but, with this changing world and the practice of engineering requiring an ever-broadening understanding of the physical, natural and social sciences, it should be reopened. Most professions (e.g., business, law, medicine) do not consider the bachelor's degree a professional degree. Academia's customer, industry, will play a significant role in answering this question. However, increased education for engineers is already happening. Also, much-needed diversity is beginning to be the norm in the engineering work force. Women engineering professors, while no longer a rarity, are still too few in number. From my experience high schools tend to discourage, rather than encourage, women to enter engineering. If the B.S. degree is not the first professional degree, will engineering faculty need to change their activities and background? Professor Wulf's definition "design under constraint" implies creativity. Faculty in the creative arts (e.g., art, music, and drama) are expected to perform. Performance-oriented professions, such as medicine and law, expect their faculty to perform. Engineering faculty, for the most part, are judged by criteria for the science faculty, and the practice of engineering is not one of these criteria. In today's academic world it is almost impossible to grant a professorship with tenure to a senior engineer from industry without a publication record. In conclusion, I have tried to enumerate some of the challenges that I think will face future engineers "designing under constraint." I would close by saying-thank the good Lord for young engineers. My experience with these young engineers is that they are not handicapped like me by past experience, so they go ahead and "do the job" without knowing how difficult it seems to be.

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Last updated: January 18, 1999 (mvh)